Bitcoin To Bottom By Year’s End?
Bottom this. Bottom that. Since Bitcoin (BTC) began to tumble at the start of 2018, the cryptocurrency community has sought to determine where assets in this nascent space will find a long-term floor. While many analysts and commentators have made faulty calls, with BTC falling further after they proudly proclaimed cryptocurrencies were back on its own two feet, many have still sought to speculate.
Bitcoin Jack, an analyst at investment signals group Bravado, noted that he believes that bears will end their relentless bloodshed by Q4 of 2019, over six months away. To back his claim, he cited the three-month TD Sequential measure, a trend indicator actively used by a short-term bear, long-term bull, Tone Vays. He noted that as the cryptocurrency market found a bottom after the TD flashed a red four in 2014/2015’s cycle, the same is likely to occur here.
$BTCUSD Q4 2019 Start of Bull
It's official. I am calling the end of the bear market the latest by Q4 2019.
One chart to rule them all.
Cycles cycles cycles. #TDSequential@ToneVays pic.twitter.com/JfStutlw5p
— //Bitcoin 𝕵ack 🐐 (@BTC_JackSparrow) February 27, 2019
Referencing the Lord of The Rings, Jack even quipped that this is the “one chart to rule them all.” In his analysis’ sub-tweets, the Bravado representative noted that the Bitcoin price could “definitely see lower lows before [a] bull run.”
Interestingly, this comes after he noted that last weekend’s sudden plunge, which sent BTC from $4,200 to $3,800, was a “perfect shakeout,” adding that there is a possibility for Bitcoin to bounce off the upper bound of a declining pennant to revisit previous support levels. Yet this is a short-term call, compared to his medium-term prediction of a final bout of capitulation to end the bear market close to year’s end.
Jack isn’t the only analyst to have called for this bear market to come to a head in late-2019. Anthony Pompliano of Morgan Creek Digital, for instance, told a number of outlets that he expects BTC to range around current price levels for much of 2019.
Brian Kelly, a crypto-centric CNBC contributor, explained that a sub-$3,000 Bitcoin is more than likely, citing historic market cycles to back his point. Speaking to CoinTelegraph, the chief executive of blockchain-friendly investment group BKCM noted :
I look at the price and I say that we’ve seen three or four of these kind of boom-and-bust cycles in Bitcoin. If you look at the most recent two or so, we’re following roughly the same path as we’ve had… We might have another dip lower — it wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Alex Krüger, a markets researcher, also noted that there isn’t much upside potential at the moment, citing a lack of noticeable public interest in this space, which leads to a drastic disconnect between fundamentals and valuations.
Then again, many argue that there’s a high likelihood that cryptocurrencies are ready to head higher in the near future, compared to the end of 2019. Tron CEO Justin Sun proudly claimed that BTC’s collapse to $3,150 on December 14th will be the “absolute” lowest price point the flagship cryptocurrency will touch for “three to five years.” Magic Poop Cannon, a well-followed cryptocurrency analyst, also recently stated that by his technical analysis, the bottom may just be in.
Title Image Courtesy of Patrick Tomasso Via Unsplash
