Bitcoin (BTC) On Verge Of Full-On Bull Rally If Historical Signal Has Merit

Bitcoin Ready To Run

Bitcoin (BTC) has finally begun another leg higher. After failing to surmount $8,300 for two weeks, the cryptocurrency suddenly burst from $8,000 on Sunday, rocketing to $8,900 in under an hour.

With this, Bitcoin’s weekly chart, a great gauge of medium to long-term price action, saw four weekly candles in a row that closed above the 50-week moving average. While this doesn’t sound significant, analyst Nunya Bizniz notes that this series of events has never failed to initiate a bull run in Bitcoin’s ten years as a liquid asset.

As seen in the Twitter post below, when BTC last saw four weekly closes above the 50-week MA, what followed was a move from the hundreds to $20,000. And, when Bitcoin only saw three weekly closes above the aforementioned level, a drawdown was seen. So, this recent noticing seemingly confirms that the cryptocurrency market is on the verge of its next rally, which many expect to kick fully off after 2020’s halving.

Strong Fundamentals Suggest Bears Capitulated

Fundamentals also suggest that BTC is decidedly in a bull market. As Ethereum World News reported previously, Thomas Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors, the Bitcoin boosters of Bitcoin boosters, laid out thirteen reasons why he believes that the fabled “crypto winter” is over. Most of them are as follows:

  • The Bitcoin Cash hash war of late-2018 came to a close earlier this year/late-December, which many believe is what catalyzed the drop from $6,000 to $3,150.
  • Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust saw its premium over BTC spot fall to 5%, implying that “capitulation” in this market has occurred.
  • The number of on-chain transactions has turned positive year-over-year, meaning that users of the blockchain have yet to disappear, and are actually a growing demographic.
  • Fundstrat’s Bitcoin Misery Index reached 89 on April 2nd. This is the highest reading since June 2016, and could indicate that overall bullish behavior for Bitcoin is on the horizon. As Lee explains, since 2011, a Misery reading of over 67 came only during bull markets. However, when Misery peaked above 67, BTC, on average, fell by 25%, as investors look to take profits. The Fundstrat executive did may it clear though that even if a drop is inbound, Bitcoin has more likely than not seen its one-year bear trend end at $3,000.
  • Bitcoin moved above its 200-day moving average, then the golden cross occurred just days later.
  • This one is funny. ParabolicTrav, a diehard crypto bull, reappears after a seven-month hiatus.
  • Adamant Capital revealed that think the market had bottomed, releases a bullish report after effectively calling the last rally. They explained that the 
     Bitcoin Unrealized Profit/Loss (BUPL) indicator then revealed that the cryptocurrency market was entering a phase of “hope”.
  • Over-the-counter (OTC) volumes surge, hinting at immense institutional interest.
  • The news unveiled at Consensus 2019 confirm that the industry is still strong and developing.
Title Image Courtesy of Matthew Henry Via Unsplash