Bitcoin continues to trend lower inside a short-term descending channel, possibly attempting to break below the current support. This is around the mid-channel area of interest of an even larger descending channel.
A break below the current levels could put bitcoin on track towards testing the larger channel bottom closer to $3,000 and the previous year lows. The key level to watch is $3,400 as a move below this could confirm that price is far from bottoming out.
The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the downtrend is more likely to gain traction than to reverse. The 100 SMA also recently held as dynamic resistance on the latest bounce and the 200 SMA is just close by, hovering above the top of the smaller channel and near the resistance of the larger one at $3,800.
However, stochastic has dipped into the oversold region to indicate that sellers are tired. The oscillator is starting to pull up to indicate that buyers are returning and might push for another test of resistance. At the small channel, this is located around $3,600. Similarly RSI is pulling out of the oversold region and is moving north, so bitcoin might follow suit.
Volume remains subdued, which suggests that a correction from the previous strong moves may be in the works.
Bitcoin traders appear to be getting weary of riding on pure optimism that institutional investment could pick up this year. Still, Fidelity has set March as the date for the launch of its institutional platform, which may see more bitcoin buying interest as it approaches.
Called Fidelity Digital Asset Services, this will reportedly offer custody and trade execution services for digital assets, targeting institutional investors like “hedge funds, family offices and market intermediaries.”