Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Are Bulls Losing the Fight?
Bitcoin bulls continue to struggle, leading to the creation of a complex head and shoulders pattern visible on the 4-hour time frame. Price has yet to break below the neckline around $9000 to confirm that a downtrend is underway.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the upside. This suggests that the uptrend is more likely to resume than to reverse. However, the gap is narrowing to signal weakening bullish momentum while price is below the 100 SMA as an early signal of a return in sellers.
A break below the neckline could send bitcoin lower by the same height as the chart formation, which spans $9000 to $10,000. The 200 SMA dynamic inflection point might serve as support as well.
RSI is heading lower to show that sellers have the upper hand, but the oscillator is also dipping into oversold territory to reflect selling exhaustion. Turning back up could draw buyers in and lead to another move to the resistance around $9750-10,000.
Bitcoin appears to have seen less than the previous share of positive updates this week, which started off on a sour note thanks to Warren Buffet’s remarks. Still, it’s worth noting that market players expect an influx of institutional funds as ICE is planning on launching a bitcoin trading platform.
Geopolitical risk appears to have dampened demand for cryptocurrencies, though, and BTCUSD seems to have shrugged off the recent dollar selloff on weaker CPI.
Analysts continue to predict more gains for bitcoin, with Thomas Lee forecasting that it could reach $36,000 by year-end and Fundstrat setting an estimate at $64,000 for next year. According to Sam Doctor, head of data science research:
“We believe the current path of hash power growth supports a BTC price of about $36,000 by 2019 year end, with a $20,000-$64,000 range.”