Bitcoin broke below its falling wedge consolidation pattern to signal that bearish momentum is picking up. However, price seems to be stalling at the $3,300 level so a pullback to the broken areas of interest may be in order.
Applying the Fib retracement tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 50% level lines up with the broken wedge support which might be enough to keep gains in check on a correction. The 61.8% Fib is back inside the wedge but might still serve as resistance since it’s close to the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point.
On the subject of moving averages, the 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse. In addition, the gap between the moving averages is widening to reflect increased selling momentum.
RSI is already indicating oversold conditions, though, and turning higher could show that buyers might be ready to take over. Stochastic is heading south but is also in the oversold region to signal that sellers are feeling exhausted.
Bitcoin seems to have gotten another blow from the SEC announcement to once again delay their ruling on the bitcoin ETF. Although there were already hints earlier from SEC Chairperson Clayton that they’re not likely to approve the proposed rule change anytime soon, the actual decision still seemed to inspire a wave of selling.
However, it’s also important to note that this decision comes after a meeting with representatives from VanEck and SolidX on how ETFs on gold and other commodities may be comparable to the one they’re proposing on bitcoin. In fact, the companies pointed out that bitcoin ETFs may be less prone to market manipulation, so the decision to delay instead of completely reject might prove to be a positive development.