Bitcoin might be in for further declines as it hovers around the bottom of the descending channel on the 4-hour chart. A larger bounce could still take it up to the Fib levels nearby.
However, the 100 SMA recently crossed below the longer-term 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the selloff is more likely to gain traction than to reverse. A break below the swing low could set off a steeper slide.
The moving averages are also close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at the mid-channel area of interest. This suggests that upside might be limited, especially since there are more resistance levels above it. The 50% level is around the $3,900 mark while the 61.8% level is near the top of the channel.
RSI is treading lower to confirm that bearish pressure is in play. The oscillator has some ground to cover before hitting the oversold region, which means that selling momentum could stay on for a bit longer. Stochastic is also moving south so price could follow suit while bears have the upper hand. Watch out for a break below the swing low to gauge if more declines are in the works.
Bitcoin has struggled to maintain the positive start earlier this year as traders appear disappointed about the lack of actual developments that could sustain the rallies. Note that most of the optimism stems from expectations of stronger institutional investments in the space, but more of this needs to be seen or at least covered by headlines in order to boost prices.
Besides, much of the focus lately has been on the delayed Ethereum upgrade, which is casting more uncertainty back in the industry once again. In the absence of a major positive development, consolidation or further declines appear likely.