Bitcoin has recently formed lower highs and higher lows inside a symmetrical triangle on its 1-hour time frame. Price is testing the very bottom of this short-term consolidation pattern, which happens to line up with the support of an ascending channel that’s been holding all September.
A bounce off this level could take price back to the triangle top around the mid-channel area of interest of $6,600. Stronger bullish momentum could lift it all the way to the channel top around $6,850 or higher. The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA after all, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that the uptrend is more likely to resume than to reverse.
However, stochastic is pointing down to indicate that sellers have the upper hand. This oscillator has a bit of room to head south before hitting oversold levels, so bitcoin might keep following suit. Turning back up could encourage buyers to return and a bounce to ensue.
RSI is also heading south to reflect the presence of selling pressure. A break below the channel and triangle support around $6,450 could lead to a drop that’s at least the same height as the triangle pattern, which spans $6,200 to $6,800.
Bitcoin had another rough 24 hours as traders are reacting to news that Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust is down to its lowest point since price surged in late 2017. Shares are down nearly 80%, discouraging more investors from putting funds in the trust or the cryptocurrency for fear of another massive wipeout in value.
Still, many believe that a rebound is due at some point, thanks to developments in the Lighting Network. This allows another blockchain layer to be built on top of the existing bitcoin blockchain, processing smaller transactions at faster times while still maintaining network security.