Bitcoin recently tumbled below the bottom of a symmetrical triangle then bounced off support around $5,750. Price could be pulling back to retest the broken support before heading back down.
Using the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 50% to 61.8% levels are close to the broken triangle bottom, which might now hold as resistance. If so, price could fall back to the swing low or even lower.
The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse. Price is also testing the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point, which lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
RSI is already indicating overbought conditions or that buyers are feeling exhausted. If the oscillator turns lower, bitcoin could follow suit. Stochastic has some room to climb but is also nearing overbought levels to signal slowing buying pressure.
Bitcoin has had a relatively good run so far this month, starting from a strong start in the first week of July to this week’s solid performance. Although some dismissed this as a dead cat bounce or short squeeze, there have been plenty of notable industry developments that could sustain the rallies.
For one, there have been reports of institutional funds gearing up to make investments in the space, such as that of BlackRock or Cohen Private Ventures. Regulation has also been progressing, particularly in Japan, and this helped support confidence in the crypto industry.
In the US, NYDFS granted BitPay its own BitLicense, allowing it to offer its services to businesses and consumers in the state. More positive developments like these could lead to more gains for bitcoin, which also appears to be taking advantage of dollar weakness lately.