Ethereum was previously trading inside a descending channel on its 4-hour chart and is starting to bust through resistance. Price has closed past the $500 level as well, and this has been a particularly strong area of interest.
However, the 100 SMA is safely below the longer-term 200 SMA on this time frame to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse. Also, the gap between the moving averages is widening to reflect stronger selling pressure.
In that case, price could still fall back inside the channel to resume its slide to support or at least until the mid-channel area of interest. However, stochastic is pulling up from oversold levels to signal a return in bullish momentum.
To top it off, a bullish divergence can be seen as price made higher lows while stochastic had lower lows. RSI is treading sideways to reflect further consolidation, though.
Geopolitical risks have resurfaced in the previous week, mostly stemming from trade war jitters but also from terror attacks to some extent. Tensions in Iran are also in play and could also ensue a flight to safety.
Interestingly enough, ethereum is putting up a strong fight to the dollar even while bitcoin and most of the other altcoins are on shaky footing. Note that the cryptocurrency industry is back to fearing regulatory efforts as Japan recently announced that it would shut down Binance operations in the country for failing to obtain necessary licenses to operate.
South Korea echoed these sentiments, adding that they would intensify their fight against the use of cryptocurrency in money laundering activities. Japan and South Korea are the largest markets for ethereum so a shutdown of a major exchange in these countries could severely hurt volumes and activity.