Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Will Bull Trend Resume? Ceiling at $4,500
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Once again, the political escalation in Venezuela is proving to be a financial quagmire for ordinary, law-abiding citizens. Thanks to Juan and Maduro duel, a fight between a determined and well backed opposition and a rigid but powerful incumbent, chaos has rocked Venezuela and normal service has been disrupted as the Bolivar is spiraling to what it is–paper. In the face of a painful hyperinflation, the country’s government issued money is now worthless and everyday’s transactions are done in fiat weights.
Further worsened by US intervention and sanctions, citizens are now flocking to a censorship resistant and global currency. According to records from LocalBitcoins, Venezuelans are ignoring the government’s directive of banning crypto exchanges and trading in cryptocurrencies.
However, that is not preventing an aversion of a financial suicide as more are staking their savings in Bitcoins. Fiat transactions are monitored and any transaction above $50 attracts a bank account freeze until after an explanation is given to the bank detailing the source of the funds.
Encouragingly, it is not in Venezuela and other economies ravaged by hyperinflation where Bitcoin is proving to be king. Measures taken by banks as they try to “stem out money laundering” is endorsing BTC as a secure place to store value. Just recently, Spain’s BBVA froze accounts belonging to several Chinese nationals sparking demonstrations in Madrid.
BTC/USD Price Analysis
By close of Feb 25, BTC prices were down roughly 8.5 percent but closed the week higher at 3.5 percent. If anything, this is just but a pump in a Bitcoin (BTC) bullish trend. While we cannot exactly pinpoint the cause of this liquidation, it may be because of profit taking or a natural but sharp cool off that is so common in crypto. Despite this, we expect support at the $3,800 and any move above $4,500 would spark a buy off with first targets at $5,800.
Trend and Candlestick Arrangements: Bullish, double bar bear reversal pattern
In the short-term, bulls are in charge as we have reiterated in our previous BTC/USD trade plans. However, when we analyze price action from a top-down approach, sellers are in control and the only way for bulls to prove their strength is if they build momentum and reverse Nov 2018 losses by printing above $5,800 and $6,000.
Now that we have a double bar bear reversal pattern off near Dec 2018 highs complete with above average volumes, it is likely that Bitcoin (BTC) will slide back to $3,800 and even retest lows of Feb 18. After that, odds are buyers will flow back as Bitcoin (BTC) bulls drive prices towards $4,500 and even $6,000.
Anchoring our bar is Feb 18 bull bar—37k. Propelling that wide range bar is above average volumes exceeding Jan 10’s 35k. Therefore, unless otherwise there is a counter bar with equally high volumes wiping gains of Feb 18 and driving prices below $3,500—data streams from BitFinex, we shall maintain a bullish outlook in the short-to medium term.