One word can describe the recent bout of Bitcoin (BTC) price action: wow. In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a rally seemingly not seen since late-2017, when hype drove prices to new highs day in, day out. As of the time of writing this, Bitcoin sits, according to Coin Market Cap, at $10,750, up 10% in the past 24 hours — a monumental gain which mostly came to fruition within the past four hours.
Save for Ethereum, which itself is up 9% in the past day, altcoins have been suffering. In fact, BTC dominance has risen to 59%, catalyzed by a relative sell-off in non-BTC and non-ETH digital assets. In other words, all eyes are on Bitcoin right now.
Bitcoin to Hit $100,000?
With this recent price action in mind, one analyst, legendary commodities trader Peter Brandt, has become entirely bullish on BTC. In a recent FOMO-inducing tweet, the American analyst, known in cryptocurrency for his Bitcoin analysis, claimed that BTC now has its sights aimed at $100,000.
More specifically, he notes that this recent surge validates the idea that Bitcoin is about to embark on its fourth “parabolic phase” (meaning bull run) since 2010. The parabola he drew, which can be found depicted at this linked tweet, shows BTC’s long-term logarithmic chart, and a newly-formed parabola that if followed, should bring BTC to $100,000 by early-2020.
While this would represent a gain of around ten-fold in under a year’s time, Brandt accentuates that Bitcoin is very special in that it can embark on these parabolic moves time and time again, with seeming no signs of stopping. The career analyst writes, “no other market in my 45 years of trading has gone parabolic on a log chart in this manner. Bitcoin is a market like no other.”
Some, especially those embroiled in traditional finance, would deem this sentiment crazy. But, in the comment section under the aforementioned tweet, analysts, like Master, Filb Filb, Anthony Pompliano, Mr. Anderson, and others, seemed entirely sure that such a move is possible. Considering Bitcoin’s crazy history, not to mention cryptocurrencies more broadly, this isn’t impossible per se.
Some are sure that $100,000 may not be possible though. As reported by Ethereum World News, Level’s Josh Rager notes that over Bitcoin’s three completed cycles, the trough to peak gains decreased by around 80% each time, which is a concept defined by the law of diminishing returns. As Rager notes, 2011’s rally saw a return of 320,000%; 2014, 58,500%; and 2017, 12,000%. Thus, if history is followed to a tee, BTC will rally by 2,400% off its bottom, giving it a potential high of just shy of $80,000, $78,500.
But, whether or not the law of diminishing returns applies to a nascent yet paradigm-shifting asset like BTC remains to be seen.
Photo by André François McKenzie on Unsplash