“This prediction of a ~50% drop in Bitcoin’s price was met with plenty of skepticism, but it ultimately proved to be accurate. Bitcoin proceeded to drop under $3,200 in December 2018 before recovering and shooting past a $10,000 price this past Friday.”
See his tweet below trumpeting his “deadly accurate” prediction for the bitcoin price floor of the bear market.
Now he is targeting $100,000 by end 2021 on the basis of “supply/demand economics”, with demand increasing and supply contracting.
Demand-side pressures “include large scale institutional
adoption, multiple ETF and retail product approvals, increased global
instability, lack of performance in traditional markets, and the continued
manipulation of markets, economies, and currencies by governments around the
And on the supply side, block rewards are halved in May
The Pomp assigns a “70-75%” confidence level to his prediction.
And just in case you didn’t know that crypto investing is risky, Pomp provides the following reminder of the volatility of the asset class:
“An investment in Bitcoin will deliver approximately a 10x
return if I am correct in my $100,000 price target, while the risk is a
complete loss of invested capital (-1x).”
Bitcoin to add “trillions in value” says Clem Chambers
There is more bullish optimism in evidence on the other side
of the pond.
Bitcoin is set to add “trillions in value” to the global
economy says Clem Chambers, chief executive of Online Blockchain plc, which trades
on London’ Stock Exchange’s Alternative Investment Market.
“This is no difference to the rally and bubble of 2017. In
both cases it is driven by the blockchain revolution set to add trillions in
value to the world economy,” says Chambers.
Bitcoin, traded as high at 11,150 over the weekend, with
multiple analysts predicting the price could reach new all-time highs.
Chambers agrees: “There will be cycles of boom, bubble and
bust and this is another boom/bubble part of that. How high it goes this time
is anyone’s guess but mine is above the previous high.”
Chambers provides some perspective as FOMO threatens to
reappear in the crypto markets:
“The whole cryptocurrency space is still only the size of a
single Nasdaq blue chip so there is a long way to go yet,” he points out.
Corporation get all the float. Fiat is currency for governments, libra is currency for corporations. Only bitcoin is currency for the people. I’m feeling like an evangelist almost. Who put facebook in charge of giving currency to the rest of the world… who anointed them. That would be the last person I’d give the keys to.
Barry Silbert thinks Kernen might be turning into a believer:
Google Trends shows retail FOMO hasn’t kicked in yet
Coming back to FOMO, its look lie it hasn’t even got started
yet. Worldwide searches for ‘bitcoin’ is at 16, where December 2017, the
all-time high, is 100.
Driving the market higher are people already in the know who
had perhaps been sitting out the crypto winter.
Loose money helping bitcoin
Trace Mayer, a crypto podcaster with 58,000 followers, has posted an interesting chart showing the correlation with the bitcoin price and the US Treasury 10-Year note (inverted). See below.
He succinctly highlights one of the macros that has been
cementing the bullish sentiment in the market even before Facebook turned up.
The central bankers are looking into a future that may
produce a global recession in a year or two, or even sooner if the trader war
goes full on and world trade contracts accordingly.
In Europe investors are effectively paying governments to
buy their debt (negative interest rate).
Whether mainstream investors are sold on bitcoin is a mute point but an increasing number perhaps are, or will be.
“With $gold & $BTC rallies, perhaps look at $USD’s problems like yield curve, interest rate, trade wars, tariffs, etc. Plus, Chinese bank failures, negative yielding Euro debt & emerging markets getting whacked.#Bitcoin perfectly designed for this environment,” tweets Mayer.