It has been described as the future of money. Bitcoin remains tamper proof, inflation and censorship resistant. But, how will things pan out going ahead? Are Bitcoin related products needed? First, Bitcoin is a network and because of some of its specific properties, it can serve as a medium of exchange and a store of value. There are supporters of both camps.
Argument is, Bitcoin can serve both but the needs of each camp will be served in phases. Ideally, this is when miners will be drawing benefits not from rewards—which continue to be halved, but from transaction fees. Then, the network will be stable and thanks to increasing use, volatility will be low and as an “asset” not cash, that cannot be easily be manipulated– BTC is global and immune to local economic events as interest rate hikes or sanctions, demand will be inevitable.
Because of this, corporations will be drawn and consequently create regulated investment vehicles fashioned around Bitcoin providing a channel for investors to funnel their hard-earned capital. Besides, end users need not to know—even though it is a pre-requisite and highly advised to—the inner details of Bitcoin and related infrastructure.
BTC/USD Price Analysis
At spot rates BTC is 3.1 percent in the last day and 2.6 percent in the last week. Even so, our previous BTC/USD trade plan is valid and as prices retest the lower limit of our support zone, traders are naturally edgy. They should be. Odds are, any drop below $3,500 or the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level could open the sell sluices driving BTC prices to Dec 2018 lows of around $3,200.
Trend and Candlestick Formation: Bullish, Bull Breakout Pattern
Sellers may have an upper hand at spot rates but BTC is actually bullish in the short-term. While we can argue that sellers are firmly in control and their relentless drive may even spark liquidation, there is hope for bulls. As aforementioned, bears are retesting the lower limit of our support zone at $3,500 meaning this is a deep correction from Dec 2018 highs.
Moving on, we expect prices to steady and even recover in days ahead because if they don’t and there is a breach below the base of our bull flag at $3,500, we may see a meltdown towards $3,200. If not and there is a recovery, $3,500 will be the foundation from where trend—complementing upswings of mid-Dec 2018—resumes towards $4,500.
Note that Jan 10 bar did reverse gains of Jan 20 meaning we technically had a three-bar bear reversal pattern—the Evening Star. Now, both were high volumes—Jan 10—35k and Dec 20—65k. However, the fact that Dec 20 had a higher level of participation mean bulls have a chance from an effort versus result perspective.
We shall hold this position—after all, sellers are yet to recover losses from Dec 16-20, 42 days later—but for buyers to be in trend, the anchor bull bar signaling trend change should be accompanied by high volumes exceeding Jan 10’s of 35k.