Bitcoin Bear Market Over, Declares Fundstrat
That’s right, according to Fundstrat Global Advisors, the Bitcoin (BTC) bear market is finally over. In a tweet posted Sunday, Thomas Lee, Fundstrat’s resident crypto cheerleader and head of research, revealed his firm’s 13 reasons why he believes that the “crypto winter” has gone kaput. The most recent of these being that BTC “disturbingly” dropped to $6,200, then skyrocketed to hit $8,200.
We may not list them all, but we’ll give a good overview.
- The Bitcoin Cash hash war of late-2018 has ended, which many believe is what catalyzed the drop from $6,000 to $3,150.
- Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust saw its premium over BTC spot fall to 5%, implying that “capitulation” has occurred.
- The number of on-chain transactions has turned positive year-over-year, meaning that users of the blockchain have yet to disappear, and are actually a growing demographic.
- Fundstrat’s Bitcoin Misery Index reached 89 on April 2nd. This is the highest reading since June 2016, and could indicate that overall bullish behavior for Bitcoin is on the horizon. As Lee explains, since 2011, a Misery reading of over 67 came only during bull markets. However, when Misery peaked above 67, BTC, on average, fell by 25%, as investors look to take profits. The Fundstrat executive did may it clear though that even if a drop is inbound, Bitcoin has more likely than not seen its one-year bear trend end at $3,000.
- Bitcoin moved above its 200-day moving average, then the golden cross occurred just days later.
- This one is funny. ParabolicTrav, a diehard crypto bull, reappears after a seven-month hiatus.
- Adamant Capital revealed that think the market had bottomed, releases a bullish report after effectively calling the last rally. They explained that the
Bitcoin Unrealized Profit/Loss (BUPL) indicator then revealed that the cryptocurrency market was entering a phase of “hope”. - Over-the-counter (OTC) volumes surge, hinting at immense institutional interest.
- The news unveiled at Consensus 2019 confirm that the industry is still strong and developing.
All these factors have made him determine that by 2020, Bitcoin is “likely” to see new all-time highs at last.
This Might Not Be The Case, Analyst Warns
Some fear that the bear market isn’t over, however. As we reported previously, Magic Poop Cannon, an ill-titled analyst, has recently begun to raise red flags, noting that the ongoing rally might be a “huge fake out”. He explains that strong, correlated increases in the Money Flow Index (MFI) and Network Value to Transaction ratio (NVT) on the weekly chart have always preceded drops in the BTC price. In 2011, when the two indicators reached the peak of their range (like we see now), a 93% correction ensued. In 2013, the two indicators hit overbought/overvalued ranges twice, which were followed by a 75% and 85% decline, respectively. If history is of any indication, Bitcoin may fall dramatically from here.
He adds that the current rally makes no sense, pinning the irrationality of this current trend to institutional investors, futures, trading desks, high-frequency trading, and other factors that have been known to manipulate the underlying nature of markets. Specifically, he looks to the fact that Bitcoin has yet to touch its logarithmic regression line, which the asset has historically traded parallel to before a bull rally.
Title Image Courtesy of Elliott Engelmann Via Unsplash