Bitcoin Rally May Slow From Here
As Bitcoin (BTC) has finally settled in the $8,000 range, analysts have begun to formulate their opinions about what comes next for the cryptocurrency space. Per Tuur Demeester, a partner at Adamant Capital that recently penned a great report on the Bitcoin industry, suggested that BTC is moving from a phase of “expansion” out of a bear market to “reaccumulation” just above bear market levels. He posts a chart showing that the cryptocurrency may stay between $6,000 and $10,000 for the coming year, and will then begin to enter a bull market once the block reward reduction activates.
He isn’t the first to have suggested this. CoinDesk’s markets analysis division recently noted that Bitcoin recently moved above its 20-month moving average, which was an “early sign of the bull market in late-2015.” The last time BTC moved above its 20-month moving average, there were months of accumulation, whereas digital assets traded in a tight range without hinting where they would move next.
Bitcoin’s monumental surge over the past couple of months has caught traders with their pants down, there’s no doubt about it. Almost no one expected for the asset to pass $6,000, let alone $8,000 in early-2019. Yet here we are, sitting above a level that was a quixotic dream just months ago. Some now claim that it is a perfect time for the asset to retrace.
The last time Bitcoin’s chart looked as it did now, a strong pullback ensued. Analyst Josh Rager recently pointed out that during 2015’s recovery out of a brutal bear market, which was much like the one seen in 2018, BTC bottomed around $200, accumulated around $300 for months, went parabolic to tap $500, and then saw a 40% pullback. What’s more, the three-day Super Guppy, a key long-term trend indicator, didn’t signal a “buy” (green) until after the pullback.
But this is just the start of the short-term bearish sentiment. As reported by Ethereum World News previously, the last three times the asset’s one-week chart looked as it does now, 82%, 85%, and 83% drops were seen. More specifically, the last times the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Money Flow Index (MFI), and the Network Value to Transactions Ratio (NVT) sat at current levels, BTC fell dramatically.
He isn’t wrong. As seen in the charts below, when the three indicators reached “oversold” levels, as they are now, collapses followed a parabolic rally, like the one just seen. If an 80% decline is seen here, BTC would fall to the $1,700 range. Ouch.
Such a move would put Bitcoin out of a zone of reaccumulation, and may even catapult the space into a period of “nuclear winter”, which will be marked by a widespread exodus of investors and projects. But, some are sure that the while the crypto market’s nature is one of intense cyclicality — booms and busts, parabolic run-ups and heartbreaking drawdowns — historical price action isn’t indicative of future performance. We will have to see though.
Photo by Kent Pilcher on Unsplash