Mid-2020 Likely to Mark Start of Bitcoin’s Bull Run Past $20,000
In just a few months’ time, Bitcoin will see what is known as a halving, a once-every-four-years event which sees the asset’s inflation cut in half, skewing the supply-demand dynamic in favor of bulls.
This cyclical event previously marked the start of some of the crypto market’s parabolic rallies, during which the price of BTC and other digital assets doubled, trebled, and so on and so forth.
According to a number of analyses, the 2020 halving may kick off another Bitcoin bull run, just like its predecessors.
The Real Bitcoin Bull Run Could Start After Halving
The Ratio suggests that BTC sees two phases to its bull cycles: 1) the 51% phase, the rally from the bottom, the first correction, and then the halving; and 2) the 49% phase, marked by a parabolic surge that ends in a blow-off top.
According to the Ratio, TradingShot wrote, Bitcoin is nearing the completion of the 51% phase, which will be marked by the halving in May 2020. After that, a stronger rally should start that will end in October 2021.
It isn’t only TradingShot’s analysis that suggests Bitcoin will begin an explosion higher in the wake of the halving.
Analyst Bitcoin jack pointed out that the start of the two previous macro bull trends in 2012 and 2016 was when the Ichimoku Cloud printed a “thin red cloud.”
In fact, in 2012, BTC immediately began to rally higher once the thin red cloud was reached, and Bitcoin rallied by nearly 100% in the five weeks after the thin red cloud was reached in 2016.
History rhyming will see Bitcoin begin to explode higher around July, which is when the price is forecasted to interact with the thin red cloud that Jack was alluding to in his tweet.
The model, dubbed the stock-to-flow model, equates Bitcoin’s scarcity, derived from the above-ground supply divided by the rolling issuance of the coin, to the asset’s market cap. It determined, to a 95% R squared, that after the BTC block reward reduction in May 2020, a coin will have a fair value of anywhere between $55,000 to $100,000.
GeertJancap, a Twitter user interested in disruptive technologies, noted that per his transfer function model of Bitcoin’s price, BTC’s price will catch up to the model, created by pseudonymous analyst PlanB, a year after the halving in the middle of 2021.