BTC Could Either Retest Lows Or Fall Further
Peter Brandt, a long-standing commodities trader and technician, recently took to Twitter to convey his thoughts on the current state of the Bitcoin (BTC) market. Brandt, who has taken a liking to the cryptocurrency (not altcoins) over recent months, noted that if you harness the price action seen at the bottom of the previous market cycle (2013-2016), BTC could retest its lows in the 3000s in the coming weeks (6-7 weeks), prior to a longer-term rally.
Yet, he noted that there is a possibility that the final correction/bout of capitulation has yet to come, thus meaning that there could be lower lows to come. Brandt, who heads Factor Trading, didn’t specify where such lows could fall, but he did throw out the idea that it wouldn’t be an impossibility to see Bitcoin fall under the $3,150 floor it established on December 14th, 2018.
While Brandt made it clear that further falls aren’t out of the realm of possibility (far from, in fact), he made it clear that people calling for BTC to fall into the $1,000 are acting irresponsibly. In response to a reference to the Hyperwave theory/analysis method, which states that Bitcoin could revisit the high of the previous market cycle (2014-2015) at $1,200, he noted that this is “irresponsible.”
Analysts Argue That Bitcoin Bottom Isn’t In
Yet, many have stuck with this belief. In fact, per previous reports from Ethereum World News, Financial Survivalism, an insurance agent turned cryptocurrency trader, took a public wager that the flagship crypto could hit $1,165 before $10,200. Survivalism, who is a self-proclaimed “financial revolution prepper,” took up a wager with a fellow trader for 0.1 BTC that the flagship cryptocurrency will reach phase one of its Hyperwave, situated at where three figures become four.
Others have been lest abrash with their calls, but have still claimed that BTC going sub-$2,000 wouldn’t be too nonsensical. Murad Mahmudov, for instance, has made the case over the past several months that historical price action, combined with fundamentals, signals that there is further fall, even after today’s sudden $400 drop. Mahmudov of Adaptive Capital once noted that the waning presence of Bitcoin-related comments on Twitter should be a cause for concern. The trader explained that tweets regarding the cryptocurrency have reached 2014 levels, lower than any point in 2016, indicating that very few people care about decentralized, sovereign, uninflatable currency. In other comments, he explained that from a historical analysis perspective, the final fall has yet to come, noting that this nascent market has only seen the “baby capitulation” move play out.
Regardless of where BTC falls to, Brandt made it clear that he still holds his faith in the cryptocurrency. In response to a comment that BTC will plummet as it “can’t scale,” the Factor Trading founder noted that Satoshi Nakamoto’s first creation is the “legacy coin,” and all altcoins are “pretenders” that are poised to be valued at close-to-zero. Brandt added that he already has 10% of his tradable capital divested into Bitcoin, as he believes in the asset’s narrative — potentially as a digital gold, or as the world’s most secure transaction settlement layer.
Title Image Courtesy of Andre Francois Mckenzie