Bitcoin to Fall by 33% From Here at Most, Analysts Say
Bitcoin (BTC) has finally begun to slip. In the past week, the leading cryptocurrency has lost approximately 15% since its local peak — $9,100 — as altcoins have posted similar losses. Interestingly, the selling pressure has relented, with BTC building a base at $7,700 as of the time of writing this. Some are sure that this is just the start, though.
In fact, proponents of the Hyperwave Theory have suggested that until $20,000 is broken above, $1,000 is technically still in play for the digital asset. To back this point, Leah Wald looked to the historical chart of sugar to accentuate her point. As seen below, from 1972 to 1985, the value of sugar followed an eerie trend. In 1974, it began to go parabolic, in a manner that may make cryptocurrency investors reminisce to late-2017 or any one of Bitcoin’s earlier bull cycles.
By early-1975, the parabola had been breached, and sugar fell almost all the way back down, to within 6% of its base. Then, in a weird twist of fate, the value of sugar nearly retested its prior all-time high in a secondary parabola but fell slightly short of setting a new high. And after an 11-year cycle, sugar finally revisited its base in 1984, completing the extended Hyperwave.
But is this even possible?
According to a number of analysts, $5,000 is the absolute minimum that the cryptocurrency could reach if this move lower persists. In a recent tweet, Dave the Wave noted that if BTC follows the parabola seen below without breaking out, Bitcoin could slowly retrace to near $5,000 flat by late-2019. What supports his claim is the fact that at around $5,000, there exists a logarithmic support line, the bottom of the parabola, the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement level of BTC’s rally from $3,150 to $9,100, and Bitcoin’s long-term 1400-day simple moving average.
Dave isn’t the first to have thought so. Level’s Josh Rager noted that the lowest he sees BTC going is $5,404 because like Dave, he sees the 0.618 Fibonacci as an optimal place for Bitcoin to reverse, potentially to kick start a fully-fledged bull run.
The aforementioned two aren’t the only ones that think anything under $5,000 will likely be out of reach, barring that there is a massive collapse in the fundamentals of the crypto industry.
In a recent note, Adamant Capital wrote that “should $9,000 prove [to be] the top”, which has seemingly occurred with Monday and Tuesday’s bull-scaring price action, a 2012-esque correction could be seen. This would result in Bitcoin trading in a range “between $6,800 and $7,680”, which is a 27% to 44% retrace of the upside rally.
Even the second scenario they laid out wasn’t as bearish as sub-$5,000 BTC. They explained that another possibility is that Bitcoin could see a larger retrace, which would bring BTC to $5,600 at the lowest. The reason why this could occur is that in 2015, there was a large “upward move” in the Relative Unrealized P&L indicator, which coincided with a peak in capital flight from China, then a 70% retrace of the rally. With the conditions seemingly being the same — it is believed the U.S.-China trade war has catalyzed Bitcoin’s strong price action — this sequence of events is surely on the table.
Title Image Courtesy of Andre Francois Mckenzie Via Unsplash