Next Crypto Rally To Be Absurd
The sky’s the limit — that’s what Bitcoin (BTC) enthusiasts want to desperately believe anyway. As the cryptocurrency market has finally broken out of its bear market shell, rallying by over 100% since the start of 2018, many are sure that “crypto winter” is over and the next rally is on. And while expectations for the next bull run have varied, a majority are coming to the conclusion that the next market cycle will be more intense than any before it. Here’s why.
Misir Mahmudov, the analyst brother(?) of Goldman Sachs employee turned cryptocurrency diehard/fund manager Murad Mahmudov, noted that Square’s Cash App has become the #1 Finance app in the U.S. Apple App Store. While this doesn’t seem relevant, Square is a relatively large Bitcoin vendor. In fact, according to the Q1 2019 results that were published in late-April, Square secured $65.5 million in Bitcoin revenues, implying that $65.5 million worth of BTC was purchased. Assuming Q1’s average Bitcoin price of around $3,790 (CoinMetrics & The Block), Square sold an approximated 17,300 BTC during that period — Cash App’s fees and spreads not taken into account. During that same time frame, 162,000 BTC was mined, assuming that the Bitcoin network keeps to its standard emission rate of 1,800 BTC each day. This implies that Square’s users absorbed 11% of all BTC mined through their purchases.
Misir notes that this is relevant because the upcoming rally will be the “first bull run [during which an] established financial business lets you buy Bitcoin,” adding a quippy “buckle up” to accentuate the importance of this.
What’s more, Blockchain.com, Coinbase, among other crypto-related applications have begun to trend on app stores across the globe, signifying growing retail interest. But the reason why Square specifically is so important is that it is trusted, and is a massive on-ramp simultaneously.
This isn’t the only factor that has Bitcoin zealots believing that the next rally will be absurd. Marty Bent, the co-host of “Tales From The Crypt”, recently explained that with the infrastructure being more robust than ever, the block rewards falling to 6.25 coins per block, and geopolitical tensions, namely the U.S.-China trade war, reaching heights not seen in years, it will be “awe-inspiring”.
Where Will Bitcoin Peak Next?
This begs the question, where will Bitcoin peak next?
Level’s Josh Rager notes that over Bitcoin’s three completed cycles, the trough to peak gains decreased by around 80% each time, which is a concept defined by the law of diminishing returns. As Rager notes, 2011’s rally saw a return of 320,000%; 2014, 58,500%; and 2017, 12,000%. Thus, if history is followed to a tee, BTC will rally by 2,400% off its bottom, giving it a potential high of just shy of $80,000, $78,500.
Some have been a tad more optimistic though. Analyst Galaxy claims that the last time Bitcoin’s monthly chart structure looked as it did now, what followed was a 6,500% price surge in a two-year time frame. Thus, Galaxy notes that if historical precedent is followed to a tee, a bull run of the previous one’s magnitude will place BTC at over $333,000 per unit by the end of 2021.
Regardless of which analysis is right, the consensus is that in a number of years, BTC will be much more valuable than it is now.
Title Image Courtesy of Dmitry Moraine Via Unsplash