Brian Kelly: BTC Could Go Sub-$3,000, But Bitcoin Remains Undervalued
Bitcoin Could Fall Under $3,000
As calls claiming that Bitcoin could rally into 2020’s block reward reduction have ramped, some have remained wary of BTC’s short-term prospects. In fact, an array of analysts and industry commentators claim that the bottom is far from in.
Echoing calls from Anthony Pompliano of Morgan Creek Digital, Brian Kelly, a crypto-centric CNBC contributor, recently told CoinTelegraph at Switzerland’s Crypto Finance Conference that he is expecting that lower lows for BTC are in the cards. In fact, he remarked that a sub-$3,000 Bitcoin is more than likely, citing historic market cycles to back his point. More specifically, he told the Bitcoin media portal:
I look at the price and I say that we’ve seen three or four of these kind of boom-and-bust cycles in Bitcoin. If you look at the most recent two or so, we’re following roughly the same path as we’ve had… We might have another dip lower — it wouldn’t surprise me at all.
When asked for a target, Kelly, the chief executive of blockchain-friendly investment group BKCM, even noted that he wouldn’t be all too surprised if the Bitcoin price fell to $1,500. This comes after The Crypto Dog, a popular industry personality, personally remarked that he wouldn’t be shocked to see BTC at $1,800 and Ethereum at $50, or the cryptocurrency market embark on another parabolic run for that matter.
This aside, while he did note that BTC undergoing another 60% drop is a possibility, Kelly did remark that from a fundamental/catalyst perspective, the sell-off is likely breathing its last breaths. He specifically drew attention to the vast number of crypto-centric firms/upstarts that have liquidated their holdings in the past months, explaining that the influx of “forced sellers” isn’t sustainable.
Interestingly, however, he noted that from the perspective of BKCM’s “proprietary [valuation] model,” Bitcoin is “about 50% undervalued,” adding that overly negative sentiment has pushed BTC far below what would be deemed “fair.” Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors, another CNBC Fast Money mainstay, also recently quipped about “fair value” in crypto. Speaking to Fox Business, Lee remarked that it wouldn’t be all too illogical to foresee the flagship crypto asset at $25,000.
Yet, in spite of his optimistic comments, Kelly did ensure that he made his fair share of cautious statements.
Crypto ETF Approval Has “No Shot” in 2019
On the matter of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), Kelly simply stated that there is “no shot” for such a vehicle to make it through the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s regulatory hoop. He chalked up his claim to the fact that in his eyes, much of the SEC’s qualms with this nascent asset class and respective market remain “unsolved.” Thus, the industry commentator concluded that more likely than not, the first Bitcoin-backed ETF will see approval in 2020, rather than in the coming months.
But, some have begged to differ. In a comment given to CNBC, Hunter Horsley, the chief executive of Bitwise Asset Management, noted that while the SEC evidently isn’t 100% ready to embrace this asset class, they’re slowly coming to terms with this embryonic space. Horsley noted that the regulator’s concerns with custody are effectively solved, while its issues with market surveillance and manipulation are being solved. Ric Edelman, an American investment legend, echoed Horsley’s points, explaining that such a product going live is a matter of “when.” not “if.”
Even commissioners from both the SEC and its cousin, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, have been optimistic. But, funny enough, none of the aforementioned insiders mentioned timelines. So maybe, Kelly’s call of no ETFs in 2019 might just be accurate.